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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but clear signs that success might be imminent.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Through their brilliance, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that some may have held for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Squad Depth

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? The game is lost.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.